Is Candice Dupree's "Career Year" All That?

Tuesday, June 22, 2010



Ben York of SLAMOnline waxes poetic about the "hard work and resiliency" behind Candice Dupree's bump in boxscore stats.

Candice Dupree is interesting because like Kevin Durant, she appears to be playing well and playing a lot, but has lousy plus/minus.   Obviously, that could be related to the Mercury's weak performance, so Lynx Stats provides net plus/minus, adjusted for team performance.  Out of 11 Merc players, Dupree comes in at -10.9 or 9th on the list.

There's actually only eight players in all the league with a worse net plus/minus.

When Tangela Smith (-16.7) comes in at the bottom and DeWanna Bonner (-6.1) and Diana Taurasi (-5.5) in the middle, perhaps there's something wonky with the numbers.  However, it says something that Tameka Johnson is playing a lot of minutes (330+ in 12 games this year) but still manages +9.9.

Aside: You think the Merc don't miss Cappie Pondexter's playmaking when Tameka Johnson sits?

York goes on to muse about why Dupree isn't a hotter prospect in the minds of other teams. 

Yet, she also continues to remain one of the most undervalued assets in the league.  It’s difficult to figure out why...
While her boxscores may be consistent, how that performance equates to team success is far more problematic.

Year   / Rank / Raw / Net
2006 / 11th  /   -        /   -9.4
2007 /   3rd  /  -40    /  +4.3
2008 /   3rd  /  +19   /  +9.5
2009 / 10th  / -122  /   -4.6
2010 /   9th  /    -23  / -10.9
 
So, what explains Dupree's statistical bump of which York speaks?

Could it be simply that she benefits from the high octane Mercury game and from exceptional weak competition this year in the Western Conference?

I don't know that answer, but her team-adjusted plus/minus and the Merc's overall performance both sour the emotive force underlying Dupree's superlative scoring percentages.

The disparity in those figures pose a mystery for nascent basketball statgeekery. 






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